The Houthis have spent the last year protesting Israel’s war in Gaza by attacking vessels in and around the Red Sea, seeking to disrupt maritime trade through the Suez Canal. This sudden and powerful U.S. action, particularly using such advanced weapon systems, likely foreshadows worsening conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran.

It implies U.S. concern that Iran could plausibly blockade the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, which would compound the impact from existing disruptions to the embattled Suez Canal — and could very well represent a destabilizing, black swan-type event for the global economy. This would explain why the U.S. is using significant military force against the Houthis to help keep the Suez Canal open.

The Houthis have rendered the Suez Canal largely inaccessible for the past year. Since November 2023, the Houthis have launched ~130 attacks on vessels traversing the Red Sea and surrounding areas as they come and go through the canal. As of mid-September, the canal saw only 29 average daily transits compared to 80 in October 2023, before the Houthi attacks began. The canal’s average daily trade volume has dropped more than 70%.

The Strait of Hormuz, for its part, is one of the top strategic shipping straits in the world. It is well known that the strait is a vital sea lane for oil produced in the Persian Gulf — a commodity that continues to power much of the global economy. Less well known is the importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global transshipping (i.e., the point at which goods are transferred between ships). The UAE, positioned on the eastern end of the Arabian Peninsula along the Strait of Hormuz — directly opposite Iran — hosts Jebel Ali, the world’s twelfth busiest port. Because of the UAE’s role as an international center for commerce bridging Western and Eastern markets, its strategic location, and its designation as a free-trade zone (known as the Jebel Ali Free Zone or JAFZA), the port attracts significant global trade and transshipment. And, importantly, vessels unloading and reloading at Jebel Ali must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.