Weaponization of the Periodic Table Crimps U.S. Critical Minerals Supply Chains

December 26, 2024

Article

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) recently banned exports to the United States of three critical minerals — antimony, gallium, and germanium — along with other high-tech materials that are used in industries that are vital to U.S. national security, including defense, energy, and healthcare.

The move amounts to a weaponization of the Periodic Table and highlights a strategic vulnerability that could disrupt defense and industrial supply chains. Within hours of the export ban announcement, Exiger was called on by key clients within the Defense Industrial Base (DIB), Capitol Hill, and multiple government agencies to do a quick-turn analysis of impacts on critical supply chains. The most exposed parts are described as diodes, batteries, semiconductors and transistors, essential components powering almost every part of daily life — and national defense.

Analyzing the Impacts in Supply Chains

Exiger analyzed the impacts of the three minerals and their presence in parts and components (identified by National Item Identification Numbers – NIINs) within critical supply chains. The analysis identified parts tied to each restricted critical mineral in our knowledge graph:

28,000+ unique antimony parts
27,000+ unique germanium parts
20,000+ unique gallium parts

The comprehensive analysis extends beyond surface-level data and part descriptions, identifying critical minerals content even when references are buried in specifications or not directly called out in product description.

This approach offers organizations a non-invasive, outside-in view of their critical mineral exposure. Exiger is the only company capable of identifying the holistic supply chain impacts of critical minerals from technical data packages. Other providers are only able to identify a fifth of the parts impacted by antimony that Exiger can, less than half of the germanium parts, and 55% of gallium parts.

Supply Chain Impact to Weapon Systems

The analysis also broke down presence of the minerals in weapon systems:

800+ weapon systems tied to antimony
800+ weapon systems tied to germanium
- 7 weapon systems use over 1,000 germanium parts
500+ weapon systems tied to gallium

“In our work with a large DIB manufacturer, Exiger identified additional impacted parts by analyzing technical data packages and master production schedules,” said Derek Lemke, SVP of Product Level Intelligence at Exiger. “This differentiated capability flips supply chain on its head to turn this shared risk into reward.”

“In our work with a large DIB manufacturer, Exiger identified additional impacted parts by analyzing technical data packages and master production schedules.”

Derek Lemke

SVP of Product-Level Intelligence, Exiger

How Are These Minerals Used?

All three minerals are designated as “critical” by the Department of Defense, as they’re used widely in high-tech defense applications.

Antimony (Sb): A metalloid used primarily in flame retardants and lead-acid batteries; predominantly sourced through stibnite (Sb2S3) ore.

Gallium (Ga): A soft metal essential for semiconductors, LEDs, and solar panels; obtained as a byproduct of zinc and bauxite ore processing.

Germanium (Ge): A lustrous metalloid crucial for fiber optics, infrared optics, and solar cells; primarily obtained as a byproduct of zinc ore processing.

The U.S. imports over 50% of its antimony, gallium, and germanium needs. Even when sourcing from countries like Belgium, Germany, and Japan, there is often upstream exposure to China.

The Larger War in Critical Minerals

The PRC dominates the world’s production and processing of many critical minerals, as these highlights from Exiger analysis and the U.S. Geological Survey show:

The PRC supplies more than 50% of U.S. demand for 24 critical minerals, including more than 90% of demand for rare earth elements.
The U.S. is 100% import-reliant for over 10 critical minerals and over 50% import-reliant for over 30 critical minerals.
The United States is nearly 100% dependent on the PRC for gallium imports.

The recent bans antimony, gallium, and germanium were announced in retaliation to U.S. trade policies, but China had imposed export restrictions on antimony in September 2024 and gallium and germanium in 2023.

[WATCH NOW: On Alert: China Ban Crimps U.S. Critical Mineral Supply Chains]

How to Mitigate Critical Minerals Dependencies

Gaining multi-tier visibility into supply chains at both the entity- and item-level is necessary for identifying risks and mitigating dependencies. Here are some steps to aid in the process.

Illuminate supply chain dependencies

Material input analysis: Evaluate critical mineral usages across systems down to specific products to pinpoint vulnerable areas.
Comprehensive risk mapping: Map supply chains from end products and components back to the mines, identifying vulnerabilities tied to China or other adversaries

Diversify sources

Friend-shoring: Partner with other nations to establish secure and cost-effective supply chains.
Alternative sourcing: Identify additional suppliers to mitigate dependencies.

Vulnerability mitigations

Stockpile critical components and consolidate procurement across programs to ensure availability during disruptions.
Develop vulnerability testing to identify alternatives of materials and components.

Ongoing monitoring and mitigation

Use predictive tools to continuously monitor risks, predict disruptions, and implement proactive contingency plans.
Improve sourcing strategy with more accurate price forecasts, allowing for better margins and cash flow.

How Exiger Can Help Build Resilience

Understanding and navigating geopolitical risk is now a fact of life for most businesses — especially where critical minerals are involved. Unlike others relying on external or limited data, Exiger helps customers by utilizing advanced technology to ensure unmatched discovery and insights into supply chain dependencies.

Exiger’s product-based mapping builds evidence-based supply chains connected to risk and opportunities in a single pane of glass. Exiger’s knowledge graph spans 90+ million parts and 400+ million part attributes with proprietary technology that doesn’t require surveys. The 1Exiger platform goes beyond identifying siloed parts and dependencies, forecasting demand across the enterprise, and mapping critical minerals to the hole in the ground. We can also work with customers to show an outside-in view of their supply chains and use customers’ data to identify critical mineral exposure (part descriptions, part numbers, technical data packages, PLM/ERP systems).

The platform also supports multi-tier management of critical supply chains, identifying part risk — like the presence of critical minerals or PFAS — before providing alternatives.

Government and commercial clients use the FEDRamp-accredited 1Exiger to map international supply chains, uncovering vendor concentration risk and identifying alternative sources of critical goods. Vendor diversification encourages supply chain resilience, allowing an organization to better withstand unpredictable disruptions from geopolitical tension.

[WATCH NOW: On Alert: China Ban Crimps U.S. Critical Mineral Supply Chains]

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